For the most part, the US, and much of the world, has enjoyed a reasonable amount of economic stability since the pandemic. Unemployment has been low, inflation has been in retreat, the markets have been very robust. Sure, there have been some stubborn things like certain commodities, while other things like gas have technically been below the rate of inflation. But despite the rhetoric of the last election cycle, the economy was enjoying a net positive direction.
Then we elected a petty felon into the White House that has in just a few short weeks destabilized everything.
The retirement accounts that I've worked so hard to build up have lost 12%. If a recovery doesn't happen of the same scope, I can expect to wait two more years before quasi-retiring. With all of the chaos, many companies and individual consumers have pulled back to a place of caution. We may end up in a recession that is completely self-inflicted. Anyone really willing to think things through in November said to expect this, but even I figured the machines would keep running and mostly we'd be dealing with civil rights problems.
And for what? Tariffs are not a tax on other countries, the buyers of their products pay for that. Coupled with third grade supply and demand understanding, it should be pretty obvious how this doesn't benefit anyone. Yet the MAGA cult is insisting everything is fine, despite being the very people who believed that the economy sucked. Now that it's actually in danger, they're convinced it's not.
If people start watering plants with Gatorade, I'm out. (Movie nerds get this.)
The housing crash in 2008 hosed me pretty bad, because that was the only significant asset that I had. The win was that I had time to regroup and be a little more responsible with my finances. But setting myself up for a happier third act requires housing values to stay where they are, reasonable inflation and a market that consistently can return 6% or more annually. Housing demand isn't softening, so hopefully that hangs on, but the markets are scary and tariffs will absolutely drive up inflation. I'm a middle-class guy doing all of the right things and playing the game, so I imagine the future looks even scarier for people who are not as well off. They deserve the chaos even less.
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